Tuesday, June 22, 2004

So much for the Reagan Bounce

It looks like the Reagan funerary extravaganza didn't do anything to help the beleaguered Dubya - The latest ABC/Washington Post poll has Bush's numbers dropping again. It doesn't surprise me too much - the Bush Administration is so incompetent on so many levels that it's become impossible for even the most willfully ignorant not to notice.

Via The Daily Kos:
ABC/WaPo poll. 6/17-20. MoE 3%. (5/20-23 results)

Kerry 48 (46)
Bush 44 (46)
Nader 6 (4)

Kerry 53 (49)
Bush 45 (47)

Bush's approval ratings

Approve 47 (47)
Disapprove 51 (50)

The most encouraging number out of this poll is on who voters trust to deal with terrorism - it's now Kerry 48%, Bush 47%. That's a dead heat - but 2 months ago Bush led by 21%.

It's interesting to look at the graph of Bush approval polling over the course of his administration. There are three significant bounces. The biggest, of around 50%, followed 9/11. Next largest is during the Iraq war, of about 15%. The most recent one was the capture of Saddam, when there was a short-lived 5% bump. Reagan week doesn't appear to have added much of anything. The clear pattern in this picture is a steady, linear decline in Bush's approval ratings, to the point where they're now as low or lower than they were before 9/11.

The numbers are encouraging, but I still worry that the Bushies will pull it out, by hook or by crook. The election is still 4 1/2 months away, and an awful lot can happen between now and then. Let's keep the pressure on.

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