Sunday, September 05, 2004
The sky is NOT falling
So what's up with these polls that all of a sudden make it look like Dubya has a double-digit lead? I think it's a simple matter - a bunch of right-leaning but basically centrist voters got a dose of "Who's your daddy?" from Bush's convention speech. A lot of them were feeling unhappy about the path the nation is on, and were looking for some love from the President.
I wouldn't say there's no need to worry - I've been worried about this election since Inauguration Day, 2001.But I don't think these spot-polls are much to add to those worries - the basic facts that were causing people to abandon Bush - Iraq, jobs, health care, lack of security preparation - haven't changed. This bounce, I believe, will be just that - after a bounce up, the polls will settle back down to the same region they were in before - roughly tied, with Kerry a few points up. This might take a week or two, but the economic news has been bad, oil prices are still at historically high levels, inflation is picking up, interest rates are moving up, and Iraq looks every day like a bigger disaster. As long as Kerry can get that message out, Bush's negatives will remain high. What he needs to do is counter the message (mostly fictional, natch) that Bush's people are putting out about him.
The blogger I most pay attention to regarding polling is Ruy Texeira at Donkey Rising - he follows ALL the polls and has an excellent handle on what the trends are and what they mean. If Texeira starts saying the polls are looking bad, that's when I'll start to worry in earnest. In the meantime, he's saying "Don't worry." While that's tough advice to take when everyone's running around like the sky is falling, I'll try to follow his advice. I suggest you all do the same.
I wouldn't say there's no need to worry - I've been worried about this election since Inauguration Day, 2001.But I don't think these spot-polls are much to add to those worries - the basic facts that were causing people to abandon Bush - Iraq, jobs, health care, lack of security preparation - haven't changed. This bounce, I believe, will be just that - after a bounce up, the polls will settle back down to the same region they were in before - roughly tied, with Kerry a few points up. This might take a week or two, but the economic news has been bad, oil prices are still at historically high levels, inflation is picking up, interest rates are moving up, and Iraq looks every day like a bigger disaster. As long as Kerry can get that message out, Bush's negatives will remain high. What he needs to do is counter the message (mostly fictional, natch) that Bush's people are putting out about him.
The blogger I most pay attention to regarding polling is Ruy Texeira at Donkey Rising - he follows ALL the polls and has an excellent handle on what the trends are and what they mean. If Texeira starts saying the polls are looking bad, that's when I'll start to worry in earnest. In the meantime, he's saying "Don't worry." While that's tough advice to take when everyone's running around like the sky is falling, I'll try to follow his advice. I suggest you all do the same.
