Wednesday, September 08, 2004

So much for that big RNC bounce 
The Newsweek and Time poll methodologies didn't stand up to much scrutiny, and more rigorous followups are confirming their bogosity. Ruy Texeira comes through with the goods
Kerry Widens Lead in Battleground States!

Now that's a headline you're not likely to see in the mainstream media, consumed as they are with the storyline du jour about Bush's Big Mo' from the convention.

But that's what the internals of the latest Gallup poll tell us. Prior to the Republican convention, Kerry had a one point lead among RVs (47-46) in the battleground states. After the Republican convention, now that battleground voters have had a chance to take a closer look at what Bush and his party really stand for, Kerry leads by 5 in these same states (50-45)! Note that Kerry gained three points among battleground voters, while Bush actually got a negative one point bounce.

And wait--there's more! The Gallup poll's internals also show that Kerry continues to lead among independents (49-46) and that both parties' partisans are equally polarized for their respective candidates (90-7).
And, even more telling
New ICR Poll Shows Kerry Ahead With Registered Voters 48%-47% A Sept. 1-5 poll by ICR/International Communications Research survey shows Kerry with a one-point lead over George W. Bush among registered voters. The ICR poll now joins Gallup as showing the presidential race to be essentially tied among registered voters, in contrast to earlier Newsweek and Time surveys which had Bush pulling significantly ahead.
In other words, we're about back where we were before the RNC started.

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